bonds...ES...and some ideas for struggling traders
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PLEASE NOTE: I’LL OPEN THE ROOM AT 6 A.M. CT TOMORROW (FRIDAY 5th). ALSO, ON MONDAY (8TH) I’M GOING TO THE CBOT SO THE ROOM WILL OPEN AT 7 A.M.
NOTE where SP opened...and what level it had JUST come off (can't give away our secrets..but clients know...) so give SP/ES the chance to move thru 1910 and go after 1924. 1892 NOW pivotal. When 1924 trades IT becomes pivotal.
8:45 CT https://youtu.be/3Mv9n2KJf_E
for floor open: https://youtu.be/dukIpnE9V4A
6 a.m. https://youtu.be/TIM0ns_AWXo
as of 4:54 a.m. i am unable to access gotowebinar on either computer. will do my best to keep you informed. the notification i get is that their servers are down.
the upside breakout trades all look good across bonds/notes. Note 5s held the pivotal area from this weekend's letter...favor buyside there. ES is vulnerable NOW to test the overnite lows and possibly the pivot off the newsletter...that pivot is still key for direction. buying a dip to 128.10 in 10YRs. NOT fading 1907 in ES
i had to make an airport run this morning at 6...i hope to be back in the room by 8.
CBOT Option broker: Options are quiet. Feb expires today. All done. And New York has gone home. They're all babies. The storm of the century.
(This explains some of the thinness - and hence erratic price action - we're seeing.
bonds and 10s are weak having moved thru 159.00 and 128.10 respectively. we need to key off those as the morning unfolds. Ideally ES holds 1882.25 on dips.
veteran floor trader: In the last 8 years this s and p / bond trade is moving in opposite directions more than I have ever seen it.
bonds and 10s (especially 10s) showing weakness here. 10s need to hold 128.28 on any rallies tho. SP/ES holding pivot (1861) but has so far failed at 1874.75. 74.75 IS ready to fail tho.
not a very impressive overnite session. SP seems vulnerable to the downside; we want to see 1861 hold tho as we go into the pit session. Bonds probing higher off 160.16; let's pivot off that early. Use newsletter comment for 10YRs. NOTE: 2% in 10s closer to 128.265.
bonds sitting on the critical 160.23...that is the key for next direction. 10s were rejected by 129.02 but are almost neutral as 128.235 (2%?) is just below. 5s rejected 120.115 (we are no longer using it). SP/ES rejected 1833 (the KEY price right now). best to strongly consider the "rejections" and unless SP takes out the 1833 being careful buying bond/note dips.
SINCE THE TRADING FLOOR IS CLOSED MONDAY (THE 18TH) I’M NOT GOING TO OPEN THE TRADING ROOM THAT DAY.
FLOOR OPTION BROKER: Paper buying April and May upside call spreads 170 173 call spreads in both months. i think protection. I am feeling there's panic. Good for treasuries.
all 4 mrkts we cover are flying around with risky conditions. bonds are looking to test 157.25 now. to HELP that trade we want to see SP hold 1932.25 as resistance.
bonds are looking to test 156.02. altho there is resistance there, look for an eventual failure and continuation to 156.15. 155.18 is KEY support for this move.
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if bonds go 155.00A we want to sell looking for a re-test of 154.14. (note 14 from last nite's letter) if bonds extend thru 155.24 we are BUYERS looking for 156.05 and then squeezing.
note how all 4 markets we work in hit (es, 10s,5s) or involved (bonds) critical transitionary prices and so far have failed to take the next "leg". focus on those prices (last nite's letter) . this makes buying dips in bonds actually a bit risky. EXTRA ES downside level: a pivotal at 1901.25. we are working buys in 5s at 119.01_7 and 119.005.
just waiting on our "first hour" trade in bonds/tens (5s looks pretty rough). bonds/notes HELD the key levels from the letter on ADP but so far can't extend thru the resistance. look for a breakout in bonds from either 155.15B or 154.23.
SPs held the critical 1972.50 so we need to favor the bulls there. looking for a test of 1992.50.
bonds and notes all stalling at the resistance noted in last nite's letter. and SPs still backing off follow-thru weakness (1976). THINK "confirmation" here: let's get either 2 financials moving thru resistance or if only 1 can, let's make sure SP is weakening.
SPs hit sell-trigger at 1976 (to allow test of the KEY 1972.50) and have so far held. we're watching 1984 for some resistance.
we've been watching since around 4:30 and just see neutral bonds/notes...and a slightly weak SP. the key in SP is what happens at 2005 (we're looking to sell there). we feel bond strength can be bought (154.18/19 leaning on 14). We're working buys in 5s at 118.125.
SPs took an early look at 2042...got to - and chopped at 2029 - and then took out the stops. there has been excess in the market(s) tho....let's see who controls this 2006. give new lows a chance to test 1983.25. 2029 still key up-top.
bonds are still dealing with 154.14. let's see if the yield can hold on dip(s). 10s dealing with 126.02-126.155; this is a chop zone but we need to use it for direction. (note the bulls held "last suppor" 125.25 so perhaps a slight upside bias here)
SPs came out of that 2049.25-2042.25 with a vengeance and pushed to 2052. the bulls MUST hold 49.25-42.25 on dips now. That AREA is the pivot into the close. bonds gave a few ticks on the sell below 153.17...use 153.20 as the pivot there but trade it KNOWING it could be a real circus into the noon close.
bonds gave a nice little buy off the 153.20 given earlier. The issue i have is the thinness in the market. It's more risky to buy those 153.20s now. Trade THRU 153.17 is going to bring some weakness.
10YRs are just drifting...no test of the pivot given earlier...and not convinced the SPs will drop either. i still view 125.24 as a pivot...but this market isn't at all impressive enough to get involved in.
they really weakened the SPs and are currently inside that 2049.25-2042.25. If the longs cannot get trade back up thru 2049.25 i need to favor the bears putting pressure on the stops at 2022.75.
our 125.155 given yesterday gave us a nice buy on the auction - and trade has since pushed even higher off it. (hear's hoping the traders at my last Ninja webinar used what they learned during that event at 125.15!) I don't see alot of support tho in this market ...i'd prefer to watch how SPs deal with their critical levels and take direction off that. Small pivot at 125.24.
our 153.20 gave a nice sell late yesterdayand now not the market is back at it. fading the first touch of 154.04 should give us a "trade". Remember, the pivotal AREA of 154.04-154.14 is both a logical target on strength and going out there would give bonds a neutral close for the year. use 153.20 as a pivot for now.
SPs have dropped to the critical 2049.25 (managing a 45.50 low). Remember, 2042.25 also offers support - but this new "bullish signal" we uncovered on the 29th gets blown out with trade below 2022.75. Really focus now on WHO controls 2049.25 and 2042.25.
bonds failed thru 153.09 and have just drifted ahead of the auction. PIVOT there is 153.20. 10YR pivot 125.155. (note the mixed markets)
the 9:00 # really changed the bonds/notes. both came off support (bonds 152.28;10s 125.155) and are now trying to generate some follow-thu (bonds to 153.20-26). with the 09 in bonds just held we really SHOULD see follow-thru higher.
bonds are working thru reistance at 153.20; rallies that stall at 154.04-154.11 allow bonds to test 151.31.
SPsare nudging thru the pivotal 2071. Strength here targets 2108. IDEALLY 2068 hold on dips
favoring SP bulls at the highs just paid. very bullish if 2056.50 holds into close. 2053 now pivot.
SPs finally gave some bull-holds of 2053 and now are testing the highs. favor the bulls there..remember the 2071 target.
bonds gave 1 sell off the 154.29 and now are back at it...again: if the bulls control there, it WILL take some shorts out of the market. SPs now chopping on 2053. Trade below 2047 will bring some weakness.
SPs just popped as the pit opened. risky to trade the opening rotation but trade stays bullish if 2053 holds on any dip(s).
i just took a look at bonds, SPs, and 10s. bonds are building on yesterday's late move (and back above the yield) so now we need to see WHO controls 154.29. SPs and 10s are just drifting. note yesterday's SP 2047 buy-point held (the low was 2048) so the tone seems firm there.
financials are trying to extend higher...5YRs to 118.30. 118.23_2 is key support down below
Pivot in 10YR is 126.17. Pivot in 5YR is 118.21. SP/ES staying below 2014.50 is vulnerable to 1982.50.
10YR 126.175YR 118.215
if SPs can extend the lows - or have rallie(s) not edge too far above 2042 we can look for a test of support at 2013.
As I begin the process of closing my Twitter account I'll be using this space to post trade ideas and potentially links to short trading videos too. I'm just testing out the posting process now.
2016 - big changes, big year